FAO raises 2025 cereal production forecast and flags weaker 2026 wheat outlook

The Food and Agriculture Organization has raised its 2025 global cereal production forecast and is now pointing to record stocks, even as it warns of a softer 2026 wheat outlook.

In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief published April 3, FAO lifted the 2025 cereal production estimate by 0.2% to 3.036 billion tonnes. The agency said the revision was driven mainly by updated official data for wheat in Central Asia and maize in India.

FAO now expects world cereal utilization in 2025/26 at 2,945 million tonnes. It also forecast world cereal stocks at the close of the 2026 seasons at a record 951.5 million tonnes, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.2%.

The report was less upbeat on wheat for 2026. FAO projected global wheat production at 820 million tonnes, down 1.7% from the previous year, though still above the five-year average. The agency said weaker crop prices and higher input costs are weighing on planting decisions.

The brief gives a mixed picture: near-term supply remains comfortable, but the 2026 wheat outlook is softer as growers face tighter margins and uncertainty ahead of sowing.