Strait of Hormuz transits rise as ceasefire holds, but control remains contested

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising after the US-Iran ceasefire, but the wider question of who controls passage through the narrow waterway remains unsettled.

The latest reporting points to a partial commercial recovery in one of the world’s most important oil and gas chokepoints. Vessel movements that collapsed during the conflict are now moving higher, while insurance and freight markets are starting to ease.

Traffic is recovering

The Financial Times reported on July 3 that traceable ship movements through the strait rose to eight on July 1, after running at just one to two a day during the height of the crisis. It also said weekly transits had recovered to 258 by June 28, compared with 41 in March.

The Wall Street Journal reported a similar rebound, saying daily vessel traffic had stabilized around 30 to 60 crossings per day over the previous week, averaging about 40 a day. That is still below prewar levels of about 135 vessels a day, but it marks a clear recovery from the lowest point in the confrontation.

The two reports suggest the route is no longer in the emergency condition seen during the worst of the standoff. But neither points to a return to normal operations, and the available data still show a traffic pattern shaped by the ceasefire rather than by a settled political agreement.

Major carriers are already responding to the improved conditions. FT said shipping groups including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have begun moving stranded vessels out of the Gulf as transit conditions improve.

Commercial risk is easing, but not gone

The recovery in traffic has begun to filter into shipping economics. FT reported that insurance rates and tanker hire prices have started to decline as more ships resume passage through the strait.

That easing does not remove the underlying risk. Shipping through Hormuz remains highly sensitive to any renewed escalation, and freight markets are still pricing the route as a geopolitical flashpoint rather than a routine corridor.

The strait matters because it carries a major share of global oil and gas shipments. Even a partial disruption can affect energy flows well beyond the region, which is why insurers, tanker owners and cargo operators are watching the route closely.

The current rebound is therefore important, but limited. It shows that ships are returning when conditions allow, not that the commercial or security environment has fully normalized.

Control of the route remains disputed

The bigger unresolved issue is authority over transit itself. The Wall Street Journal reported that there is still uncertainty over whose approval ships need to pass through the strait.

According to the Journal, U.S. forces told mariners in a radio message that no nation has the authority to close or control the waterway. A separate Journal report said the U.S., with Oman, is trying to persuade Iran to give up control over ship tolls in the strait.

Iran, meanwhile, is still insisting on its command over the passage and threatening ships that do not use Iranian-approved routes. That leaves a legal and operational dispute in place even as the ceasefire has lowered the immediate military temperature.

The disagreement matters because carriers can tolerate elevated risk more easily than they can tolerate unclear authority. If shipping companies do not know whose instructions govern a transit, they may delay sailings, reroute cargo or demand higher prices even if the guns stay silent.

What to watch next

For now, the market is treating the ceasefire as real but incomplete. The next test is whether daily crossings keep rising above the current range reported by the Journal, and whether ship-tracking firms confirm that the rebound holds.

Any formal U.S. or Iranian statement on transit permissions or a corridor arrangement would be a major signal for shipping markets. So would further movement in war-risk premiums and freight rates, which would show whether insurers believe the calm is durable.

The immediate question is whether the current rebound becomes a steady normalization or stalls below prewar levels. Until the authority dispute is settled, the Strait of Hormuz remains open in practice but contested in principle.